Comparative Evaluation of Evaluation Results and Actual

Referendum Results

The FDA’s evaluation of the Taiwan Referendum on March 22, 2008 is an outside perspective of how Taiwan citizens, candidates, parties, and the outside world, can view the Taiwan Referendum. Also, the evaluation process is an example of governmental decision-making within a democratic political system of evaluative democracy.

The FDA’s evaluation of the Taiwan Referendum:

Based on the preservation of the Taiwan identity/existence, 71.6% to 35% Taiwan becoming a formal independent State versus Taiwan becoming part of China.

Based solely on the risk to world peace, 65% to 20% Taiwan becoming part of China versus Taiwan becoming a formal independent State.

Overall assessment:

Taiwan should press ahead with independence, because of its right to self-determination, and the onus should be on the world, not Taiwan, to deal with China’s intimidation and isolationist policy towards Taiwan. For Taiwan to put off independence because world powers are unwilling to act decisively against China, even though they are capable of acting decisively, would be contrary to the very existence of being Taiwanese.

Actual referendum results:

35.8% of Taiwanese voted in the referendum. Since the minimum threshold for constitutional legitimacy is 50%, the referendum failed to be even considered.

Analysis:

Though the Taiwan referendum failed, it did not fail due to a no vote. Hence, the issue of Taiwan independence versus Taiwan absorption into China remains unresolved. Viz., the lack of voter participation does not necessarily mean the Taiwanese people are not willing to pursue independence. Rather, they may think that the timing is not right to pursue independence via a formal popular statement on applying for U.N. membership.

Moreover, the referendum establishes a precedence for future referendums on Taiwanese independence.

Because of the ambiguity regarding the referendum result, the FDA does not feel the failed referendum harms the Taiwanese movement for formal independence. Though for better or worse, the result delays that movement.

By considering the increased growth of the Chinese economy and military, the increased economic ties between Taiwan and China, the increased economic ties between China and democratic countries, and recent overtures by the U.S. that the Taiwanese have to be more self-reliant for military defense, the opportunities for Taiwanese independence may over time diminish to the point of absorption into China. In other words, an opportunity for formal Taiwan independence may have been lost.